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Jun 20, 2023

Big Ten expansion: Ranking the ten most likely programs to join next

The Big Ten has gone on an expansion spree over the last couple of years, adding UCLA and USC last offseason and bringing Oregon and Washington on just over a year later. The Big Ten has 18 teams

The Big Ten has gone on an expansion spree over the last couple of years, adding UCLA and USC last offseason and bringing Oregon and Washington on just over a year later.

The Big Ten has 18 teams scheduled to be members starting next year, and nobody would be surprised if more programs joined the conference before all the dust settles on this college football extreme makeover.

But the four teams talked about the most on the West Coast out of the Pac-12 are the four teams that ended up singing kumbaya with the fine folks in the middle of the country (oh, and Rutgers and Maryland). So, this is now a moving target if the league were to add a couple of more to make it an even 20. Still, would anyone be surprised?

Before we throw caution to the wind, let’s first understand what the Big Ten’s position on all of this has been.

Here’s a look at the 10 programs most likely to enter the game of conference expansion musical chairs if the Big Ten were to add a couple of more. We go from least likely to most — of course, all in our opinion.

And while we’re at it, if you want another perspective on teams that could be ripe for more Big Ten expansion, check out our friends at Rutgers Wire.

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Going after Clemson would simply be a power move for on-the-field football performance. Sometimes you just go out and get a great football program despite all the other things that play into it for the added exposure and money that comes with the biggest revenue sport there is. It would enhance the power and exposure of the Big Ten immediately.

It feels a lot like fitting a Dabo Swinney shaped peg into a misproportioned hole. It makes almost zero sense academically and culturally. There’s not much to be gained market wise unless the Big Ten just wants to be in the South. Oh yeah, and the ACC Grant of Rights deal is something you are going to hear a lot throughout any expansion consideration — usually followed by the word roadblock.

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Pittsburgh is a Buckeye nut’s throw from the Big Ten’s legacy footprint, and it would have the natural rivalry with Penn State. Academically, it’s a fit too with the university being an AAU member.

Again, you’ll hear this throughout with all the ACC teams. Someone is going to have to challenge the Grant of Rights deal all teams are locked in, and it will likely be a significant cost if and when it happens. Pitt doesn’t have much in terms of revenue to do it, and the Big Ten isn’t really gaining much market-share wise.

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AAU member? Check. Getting into the San Francisco Bay area television market? Check again. There’s some things that definitely make sense to bring Cal into the fold with culture and having another team on the West Coast to pair with the other four that just joined.

There’s not much in the way of fan draw here. If you’ve ever been in the Bay area, it’s a heavy pro sports town and the college game doesn’t move the needle much. Plus, Cal was a bit irritated by one of its satellite schools, UCLA, joining the conference, so there would have to be a few come to Jesus meetings.

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Academically and culturally it makes a lot of sense. Obviously, having Stanford in the Big Ten would be great for all those Olympic sports and anyone looking for one of the finest academic institutions.

If it were a home run fit, it would have happened already. There are likely some of the same things in play with Stanford as with Cal, and this wouldn’t be seen as an appealing team that would increase revenue for the Big Ten.

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Miami would get the Big Ten into the largest Florida market and bring on a program that could turn into one of the best in the country again if it can figure things out. The institution was just newly named an AAU member as well, and you’d have another private school to boost the academic reputation of the conference.

It would feel a little off because Miami feels like a better fit in the SEC, academics aside. And, yeah, you are probably getting tired of hearing it, but it’s another ACC program and that means getting out of the Grant of Rights deal somehow, someway. There are also some things that come along with being a private school that would have to be sorted out.

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Culturally, academically and sports performance wise, this has and will continue to make the most sense of any other institution that’s not already a part of the Big Ten. To be fair, the Irish are a better fit than some of the teams that have been a part of the conference for a long time. At some point, it feels like Notre Dame will have to finally give in and join a conference or be left behind money-wise.

I struggle with where to put Notre Dame, but the reality is that there are some longstanding issues between the Big Ten and the Irish. For whatever reason, both have told each other to go pound sand at times. With Notre Dame aligned somewhat loosely with the ACC, and its independent status pride, there’s a great deal to work through. If it hasn’t happened by now, how does it? Can Ross and Rachel please finally get together?

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For starters, Duke is an AAU member and one whale of a school academically. While its football program hasn’t been the best on the field historically, it is one of the 10 biggest fan bases according to a recent study. Additionally, if we’re going to rank one certain program higher, can we really leave out the Blue Devils? They would prop up the basketball pedigree of the league significantly.

Though Duke has a big and loyal following, there’s not much revenue that will come with this addition. It gets the league into the fast growing Raleigh-Durham area, but Duke is an ACC school through and through. There’s a lot of pride there and yes — the Grant of Rights deal that would be hard to walk away from.

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There is no question Florida State wants out of the ACC and has its eyes on bigger paydays with the Big Ten or SEC. Though not a part of the AAU, the university has substantial research funding and academic philosophies in common with schools in the Big Ten. Athletics performance, most notably on the gridiron, would also be very, very appealing.

If any program might challenge the Grant of Rights, it could be FSU. Still, it’s an obstacle. The Big Ten would also have to get over the school not being a part of the AAU, and the SEC might get in an arms race with the conference if it, too, decides to expand further.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a lot to like about Virginia and the cultural fit. It gives the Big Ten another school on the East Coast, brings in an AAU member, and could become a rival Maryland and Penn State. There have been reports of Virginia being eyed by the Big Ten for a long time, even when Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers joined the league.

There’s not much appeal for future revenue deals, and the on-field performance isn’t as good as other programs out there. As one of the flagship schools of the ACC, it might be hard to leave that seat at the table.

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

This is a very underrated fit for the Big Ten. The conference would love to get a school that aligns culturally and academically, and I’m not sure there’s a better fit out there that combines AAU membership, academic profile, sports performance, fan following and new market access more than UNC.

Is there another school more “ACC” than North Carolina? There are deep rivalries established with teams like Duke and NC State, and it might be hard to pull away from the pride of “Tobacco Road” and what those schools mean to the region and each other. Would UNC leave without it being a package deal, and would it want to challenge the Grant of Rights deal in place with the league?

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